Greater Serengeti Conservation Society

The Impact of Climate Change on the Greater Serengeti Mara Ecosystem

Joseph Ogutu, a scientist on our Scientific Committee, has published an extensive research paper on the significance of weather changes and its implications for the GSME. 

The Greater Serengeti Mara Ecosystem (GSME) is renowned for its incredible biodiversity, home to one of the largest and most diverse collections of flora and fauna in the world. The annual Great Migration, where over a million wildebeest and hundreds of thousands of zebras travel across the plains in search of fresh grazing and water, it is one of the most remarkable wildlife events globally. 

However, the wellbeing of the flora and fauna is increasingly becoming threatened by extreme climate changes that disrupt weather patterns. These shifts present significant challenges for wildlife and tourism, as alterations in rainfall can affect food availability, migration routes, and breeding cycles. 

Joseph Ogutu, a scientist on our Scientific Committee, has published an extensive research paper on the significance of weather changes and its implications for the GSME. 

Findings and Impact

In the last 60 years, the GSME has experienced two extremes: above-average rainfall and severe droughts. 

The Mara-Serengeti is rapidly warming, with monthly minimum temperatures rising by 4.2o C during the wet seasons and by 3.3 o C during the dry seasons. Rainfall patterns are also increasing over time. The Mara this past early May experienced higher than normal rainfall, resulting in unprecedented flooding particularly in areas adjacent to the Mara, Talek and Sand rivers. 

Impact of Weather Changes

  • Droughts result in wildlife fatalities due to starvation, thirst and dehydration, as well as increased predation and poaching of weakened animals.
  • Droughts heighten competition for limited resources among wildlife, pastoralists and their livestock. 
  • Increase in human-wildlife conflict is linked to drought, as wild animals may invade crops, attack and pose risk to human lives.
  • Droughts can increase carnivore populations due to the greater availability of carcasses, however, the resulting decline in prey ultimately leads to starvation among predators. 
  • In search of food and water, droughts push wildlife to migrate longer distances, leading to premature departures, late arrivals, or movement into risky areas, such as those inhibited by poachers. 
  • Droughts contribute to a rise in diseases, including outbreaks of anthrax and rinderpest. 
  • Extended period of drought hinder reproduction, resulting in lower birth rates, decreased milk availability, and less successful matings. This can lead to unseasonal calving, reproductive pauses/failures and high mortality rates among young animals.
  • Droughts postpone the start of births and shift the timing of birth peaks, whereas rainfall accelerates them.
  • Droughts reduce the number of breeding females and lower the likelihood of synchronised breeding among them, whereas high rainfall increases both the number and synchrony of those births. 
  • Heavy rainfall restores drinking water sources and helps plant growth; however, it can also lead to wildlife drownings and habitat destruction. 
  • Intense rainfall raises the risk of extremely hot fires by fostering lush grass growth. The resulting excess biomass dries out, ignites and burns killing slow moving animals and woody vegetation.
  • Heavy rainfall causes animals to wander beyond their typical ranges and decreases the number of animals that migrate, while unpredictable rainfall leads to erratic migrations that are often misaligned with peak resource availability. 
  • Heavy rainfall following droughts can be deadly for wildlife, as the sudden severe drops in temperature that accompany the rains can prove fatal for weakened animals. 

To read the full research article, click here.

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